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Dieter3

More Insanity?

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A good condition, but far from extraordinary Manchurian Incident medal - $113.50 on eBay a few days back......yikes!!

Again, I can't question the motives of buyers....but....but......really? speechless.gif

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It must just be the timing, and that's totally unpredictable of course!

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That's the unpredictability of eBay; you can list an item once and it gets no bids, then you relist it and two or three come in to fight over it and the price realized is more than you expected to orginally sell it for. All comes down to whos looking at the time and who just has to have it. I see it all the time.

Tim

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Kinda makes me think a seller (if he or she HAS the time to wait) should start with higher prices and just stick it out until somebody comes along for it....??

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I just picked up a 5th class Sacred Treasure with Rosette and box for $180 and I was the only bidder! After the auction ended, I thought maybe there was something wrong with it and I didn't see it, but so far that doesn't seem to be the case...other than a little visible staining on the fabric. It wasn't a steal by any means, but I feel like I got a pretty good deal. Thoughts?

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Kinda makes me think a seller (if he or she HAS the time to wait) should start with higher prices and just stick it out until somebody comes along for it....??

Hi Dieter!

Happens all the time and even if you contact some of these sellers after seeing them continually relist their wares, most won't budge an inch! :speechless: There will always be "one" that comes along, eventually.

Tim

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As has been said, eBay is a study in "unpredictability" - I can watch something I think is pretty innocuous go for $100 + (thinking I'd bid $20) and then snag a "gem" for half of what I'd be willing to spend because the seller didn't give it a good description, but I had a bit of knowledge that gave me an inside edge. There is no telling with eBay. So, many factors at play; inflated starting prices, inexperienced bidders, sellers without real knowledge, buyers who know how to cherry pick, plain dumb luck. I overheard a guy the other day at a pub talking to his friend; he said that buying on eBay is like gambling. There is the thrill of chance and the bitter taste of defeat. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Probably the same for sellers as it is for buyers. But like gambling; the house usually wins. Be cautious and only bet what you are willing to lose and rejoice in your bargains because others weren't as clever as you.

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I just picked up a 5th class Sacred Treasure with Rosette and box for $180 and I was the only bidder! After the auction ended, I thought maybe there was something wrong with it and I didn't see it, but so far that doesn't seem to be the case...other than a little visible staining on the fabric. It wasn't a steal by any means, but I feel like I got a pretty good deal. Thoughts?

It's a nice piece and fairly priced IMO. :cheers:

There is a question on the mirrors. Looking at the PIC you show, the case and rosette are Showa era. Gold lettering, probably dates the case in the 1930's roughly. The mirror appears more pointed and possibly an earlier Meiji style. This is where I am personally starting to question if these variations are more manufacturer differences, or if this is just another case of mixing components to make a "set" for sale. Something we see quite often, especially on eBay. Still, very nice, congrats!

Tim :cheers:

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I just picked up a 5th class Sacred Treasure with Rosette and box for $180 and I was the only bidder! After the auction ended, I thought maybe there was something wrong with it and I didn't see it, but so far that doesn't seem to be the case...other than a little visible staining on the fabric. It wasn't a steal by any means, but I feel like I got a pretty good deal. Thoughts?

Yes, to what Tim has already said - this case is in my opinion a post-war case and rosette, and and earlier medal. The kanji styling used on the cases for all of the awards that I have seen that have this type of mirror is totally different. The one post-war example of the 5th class that I have is identical to yours.

Here's what I think the case and rosette should look like - I believe the earlier awards used the same rosette for the 5th and 6th class, not totally sure on that though - anyone?

But right case or wrong case, the one you got is still beautiful!!!!

Edited by Dieter3

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A good condition, but far from extraordinary Manchurian Incident medal - $113.50 on eBay a few days back......yikes!!

Again, I can't question the motives of buyers....but....but......really? :speechless:

And a new record! - Another Manchurian Incident - good condition, but not extraordinary - it did have the wrapping paper, but not exactly uncommon with these.......ready for it.....???

$136.50

:speechless: :speechless: :speechless:

Edited by Dieter3

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Hi Dieter,

I guess we should be happy to have what we have at this point as prices will continue to rise. Starting to remind me of German areas of collecting. :rolleyes:

The one single item that I never figured out is the WWI Victory Medal. We see these listed all the time, so you can't say they are rare by any means and I have a hard time even calling them scarce but, try to get one for less than $100. Doesn't matter if its cased or not or whether the condition is mint or worn...$100.+ or very close to it every time. :speechless:

Then... I seen two for sale recently by a dealer that has his own site and also lists on eBay. One selling for plus $300. and another for over $400.!!! :speechless1: Talk about driving up prices.

Tim

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And a new record! - Another Manchurian Incident - good condition, but not extraordinary - it did have the wrapping paper, but not exactly uncommon with these.......ready for it.....???

$136.50

:speechless: :speechless: :speechless:

I sold one on ebay two weeks ago for $35. How unpredictable is that !

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Hi Dieter,

I guess we should be happy to have what we have at this point as prices will continue to rise. Starting to remind me of German areas of collecting. :rolleyes:

The one single item that I never figured out is the WWI Victory Medal. We see these listed all the time, so you can't say they are rare by any means and I have a hard time even calling them scarce but, try to get one for less than $100. Doesn't matter if its cased or not or whether the condition is mint or worn...$100.+ or very close to it every time. :speechless:

Then... I seen two for sale recently by a dealer that has his own site and also lists on eBay. One selling for plus $300. and another for over $400.!!! :speechless1: Talk about driving up prices.

Tim

You know it's funny - by my observations for the past year or so, the WWI Victory medal actually occurs MORE often than the 1st National Census medal which you can get pretty damn cheap in good condition. I don't know what the REAL numbers of issue were, but the WWI Victory is something I'd call common. These sell for more than the typical 1914-15 Campaign medal which I would call perhaps uncommon. It must just be the pretty colors, that's it! :lol:

I've said it before, I'll say it again - Buyers: Stop doing drugs!! ;)

Edited by Dieter3

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Hello Dieter3,

I do agree with you, however, the Allied Victory Medal for Japan fits in so many collections. Collectors of Japanese, WWI in general and WWI Allied Victory Medals of the world could find this medal an interesting addition to their collections. Even with this there always seems to be the Japanese Allied Victory Medal offered for sale and that, of course, only serves to fortify your point.

I have a copy of Vernon's Collectors' Guide, Fourth (Revised) Edition and he lists the WWI Allied Victory Medal for Japan at $350.00 and that is not taking into consideration whether it has the original case or not. Yet the 1914-15 (WWI) medal lists at $125.00 and the later issue, the 1914-20 is $75.00. I have found this guide to be pretty close to the prices asked by one of the local dealers here but anything I have purchased through on line auctions I've gotten for a lot less.

I thought I would offer this to this discussion for what it is worth.

Regards

Brian

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Brian, a very good point! The National Census medal will of course be limited in its following and popularity, especially given the two events that either medal represent! But WOW! $350.00?? That's high. Even the others seem a bit high according to that guide - granted, I've seen both medals go for higher - I'd be willing (but on the very outside) to pay those prices for an excellent to near-mint condition piece - but it'd have to be really sweet. I've never even paid the U.S. dollar equivalent of $75.00 for a 1914-15 CASED War Medal in good condition, let alone the 1914-20 medal!

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I think the wide variance in prices is due to a number of factors, none of which can be easily isolated. In no particular order: First is ignorance, which many people are guilty of when buying historical relics (among other things). I remember picking up a collection of Belgian medals at a price I thought was reasonable. Later I found out I had overpaid by quite a bit--but this didn't seem to annoy me much. I merely made a mental note and went on. Looking up prices isn't always what a person wants to do.

Second, people do not value money equally. One dollar to you may mean little to you, a lot to me. This is important when buying things, to be sure. Some people just spend $100 on a whim; others can't even do that with $10. And this way of thinking is not always directly connected to how wealthy one may be. Some wealthy people are stingy, and some less wealthy blow money on frivolous things.

Third, the auction venue brings out a certain emotion that may lead to overpaying. I read somewhere years ago that once a person places a bid on an item and is the high bidder, in some way the person believes the item is rightly his/hers. So when outbid, something irrational inside clicks and the bidding war ensues because the other bidder was feeling the same false sense of ownership. This has happened to me even when I was trying to win something for resale--not even for my own collection!

Fourth, time and place seem to have an effect on final prices. Various factors can be imagined: getting a separate rare piece and wanting that other piece to complement it; having a few too many drinks or puffs; having just watched a WW2 video and got the itch; a general feeling of wanting to start up a collection---well, these kind of factors are limitless. Human nature is too complex to decipher.

Fifth,--but maybe I need to shut up. This post is probably too long.

Anyway, watching and recording these common medals sell for a lot of money doesn't seem to be a productive use of time (again, IMO). What they pay, they pay. If a seller gets lucky and makes a few extra dollars, meh--that happens. The opposite happens much more often. Believe me. I have a lot of experience with the low prices and losing money. Actually, people tend to notice when things sell for a lot and think the sellers are raking in the money, but no one notices the medals that sell for $5 that should have gone for $30. Well, no one except the seller...

Any opinions? Was I completely wrong? Any comments welcome.

Cheers,

Rich

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Hello fukuoka,

I hope all is well with you.

Good post and for the most part I agree with you.

I do think, however, that keeping records of what medals sell for is a worthwhile enterprise, if for no other reason than to assist new collectors.

Regards

Brian

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Anyway, watching and recording these common medals sell for a lot of money doesn't seem to be a productive use of time (again, IMO). What they pay, they pay. If a seller gets lucky and makes a few extra dollars, meh--that happens. The opposite happens much more often. Believe me. I have a lot of experience with the low prices and losing money. Actually, people tend to notice when things sell for a lot and think the sellers are raking in the money, but no one notices the medals that sell for $5 that should have gone for $30. Well, no one except the seller...

Any opinions? Was I completely wrong? Any comments welcome.

Cheers,

Rich

Rich, you do bring up some good and valid points! Believe me - you have no idea how much time I've invested in watching and collecting data on sales - I often scratch my head wondering why the heck I'm doing it! But I do think it is valuable in many respects - even the common ones - and it's not just the high prices - I watch ALL prices/sales, as many as I can (granted, these are limited to eBay and Yahoo! Japan, but I'd imagine these touch the vast majority of sales - there's no way to handle of course individual dealers, etc., etc.)

Several points - it will serve as interesting information at some point when price trends can (hopefully) be established in the distant future. Curiosity as well - a high and low selling price over condition, just as a matter of it being what it is, a curious data point, but really outliers and oddities - and I agree with you - based on 1) ignorance 2) not caring about the value of the money being spent (it must be nice to be able to throw money around in such a manner!

I would certainly hope that the data become valuable for collectors looking to buy - I certainly know it has helped me personally in several instances where I pretty much know based on condition how much money I can expect to have to spend if I really want to acquire something, allows me to set aside a certain amount +/- a few bucks. Plus, it gives an idea to a person as to how common a certain type of medal might occur for sale. I would also hope it might assist sellers, particularly the ones buying from Yahoo and selling on eBay, as to what kinds of prices they might expect to get, and whether or not certain things are worth selling. But perhaps not.

One nice thing that watching sales so closely has done for me is allow me to recognize the incredible amount of variation in pieces, and also recognize when certain sales have been less than honest, particularly when it comes to documents and medals that one would assume are "matched" when indeed they are not. I've also found plenty of instances of medals being altered between Yahoo and eBay, not cool. But without watching so closely, one would not know.

So, I do notice the ones that go for peanuts when they shouldn't - this is as interesting or more so than the ones that sell for sky-high prices that shouldn't either!!

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I think I had a little luck. :rolleyes:

I bought a Japanese WWI Victory Medal, with case. for a little over $ 102.00 ..

The auction ended well, there's more for faster shipping.

well, I may have made a good business. in view of other prices already achieved ...

lambert

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If it's in good condition, that is less than the average price! I paid $115.00 for one a few months back, cased, and very good condition. I think you did O.K.! I have seen folks recently though paying in excess of $140.00 for medals that are barely in fair condition - fade, ribbon abrasions, dirty cases.

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Beautiful Lambert. And perfect!

Congratulations on your find!

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Lambert - very nice! Yes, I think you got this for a good price. I actually really like that seller too.

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Brian and Dieter, thanks for your comments on my post.

I guess what I was trying to say is that we shouldn't make too much of the wild prices on either end of the range. Statisticians throw out the extremes, and dwelling on them probably isn't productive. (Of course, it is not particularly harmful, either.) Finding a reasonable price range for all the medals is a useful thing, but for common medals the range has been set over the past few years. Anyone with a modicum of interest can probably find out for himself what the range is. ebay has the completed items function, which even newbies seem to be aware of. Still, listing an acceptable price limit is fine.

The final prices for more expensive and rare medals deserve more scrutiny. Since the data is scarce and spread out over a longer period of time, it is not as easy to find.

Dieter, you mentioned 'I've also found plenty of instances of medals being altered between Yahoo and eBay, not cool.' What do you mean by altering?

Again, thanks for your comments.

Cheers,

Rich

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