I think the military phase is over for at least a generation. But I doubt they'll ever hand over all their weapons; even they've figured out that they can't fight a full fledged terror campaign in a world post-9/11. Also, I suspect while they hold onto their guns to "save face", there's also a blunt tactical purpose in play as well. An armed enemy is treated much more seriously than an unarmed one. Lastly, while the UDA/UFF fell apart back into their gangster elements, don't understimate them. If the balloon ever does go up again-watch out. The "Real IRA" downed weapons after the 3rd UDA Battalion made it very clear that Ms. Sands' kids were considered legitimate targets (complete with photos of them on their way to school). They also have been very efficient about killing their IRA targets. If the UDA chose to expand their war to include family members and the Provos and others sit back and watch, the Real IRA would last all of a weekend. There's a history in Ireland of Armed Militants becoming politicians and then-a generation later-being outflanked by the more militant (e.g. violent) group. I suspect that Sinn Fein are aware of that (certasinly Danny Morrison was and said so at the Ard Dheis in 1996) and thats' another reason AK47s still sit in bunkers near Killeybegs. Anyway, the above isn't meant as "politics" but tactical assessment.