Yes, there is no 100% in this case ... (very few cases provide that percentage)
First, I have the greatest respect for Rick, Paul C and Prosper
Now
- Paul C has the bar in-hand and I trust his knowledge to identify a period-assembled bar - therefore I believe the medal-bar is an original.
- Rick and Paul's research by elimination leaves only one candidate for this medal-bar's configuration, Model.
- The probability that this medal-bar was made for GFM Model is high.
- Prosper's arguments are sound and should be made.
What we have here is a case of circumstantial evidence and circumstancial evidence, no matter how strong, can always (and should) be challenged.
However, even without direct evidence, I am satisfied that the medal bar shown by Paul C was indeed made for GFM Model.
H