well- I think the key is the officer-grade Wurttemberg orders. There were only @ 2,200 MMO awards in WW1 and @5,100 Freidrich orders 2nd class....which were awarded to Lieutenants. What this means is that this represents the bar of a very brave jr. officer who lived until 1935 at least. My guess is that the replaced medal was the obnoxious/illegal swastika- state LS medal and that this was the bar of a Lt. dR (Pion.) or ( adept) Arzt dR/L who never got a military LS medal, because they were a war volunteer type and got a DR commission.
I tend to think of things in terms of odds: to my way of thinking I think it's 3:1 that the replaced medal was the state LS medal, followed by 10:1 RAD LS medal and 15:1 an imperial LS medal (which happened-but is rather unusual).
I have partial lists of the MMO and just at looking through the list quickly- it seems that at least 20% of the names i have were KIA, so if we ever get a database going and can cross tab for additional awards/death/FO-MMO combo, I reckon we could narrow the list of names that bar could have belonged to-...... to about 500 names or so.