Soviet Another Price Threshold is Threatened

[slava1stclass]

To all:

Judging from this, the 8K barrier will soon be broken:

http://www.collectrussia.com/DISPITEM.HTM?ITEM=16786

Regards,

slava1stclass

[Ed_Haynes]

And this for a SINGLETON, not a GROUP!

[JimZ]

Apart from the Glory hype, it is a gamble in many a way! Pay more for the first class, get the research done and then hope and pray that the 2nd and 3rd class eventually turn up! The sum of the parts will probably still be less than the value of the group. Of course that's one heck of an ambitious re-unting project to take on!

If only money grew on trees......

Jim

[slava1stclass]

Apart from the Glory hype, it is a gamble in many a way! Pay more for the first class, get the research done and then hope and pray that the 2nd and 3rd class eventually turn up! The sum of the parts will probably still be less than the value of the group. Of course that's one heck of an ambitious re-unting project to take on!

If only money grew on trees......

Jim

Jim,

...or if we could go back in time to the early 1990s when a single Glory 1st was selling for between $900.00 and $1,500.00. Unfortunately, many groups were broken up as these first started hitting the West. The 1st Class was often stripped away from its brothers in the set given the "gold" factor. It wasn't until more sophisticated collectors began insisting on complete Full Cavalier groups that this tendency began to taper off. Dealers were also quick to recognize the profit potential in securing complete Full Cavalier sets. They thus began to instruct their contacts/sources in the Motherland to work to this end and thereby adjusted to the demands of the market/their clients.

Remember, too, that back in those early days there was no quick way to verify whether all three were actually connected to a given recipient. It was not uncommon to be offered a set of three Glories (without documentation of any sort) that were alleged to have belonged to the same person. One could then either opt to purchase the Glory 1st (to complete one's collection of the three classes) or to pay substantially more (even back then) and run the risk that it was a compiled set. I know a few who elected the latter option only to get the bad news once access to the archives and research became more readily available.

It remains my personal view that a single Glory 1st should always command more than a single HSU - this given its relative rarity when total award numbers for each are compared. The explosion in asking prices for a single Glory 1st over those seen in the early 1990s is due in no small measure to this fact. I certainly agree with your view that while not impossible, it is highly unlikely that split Full Cavalier Glory sets will ever be reunited.

To own a Glory 1st, whether as a single or within a Full Cavalier set, remains no small feat.

Regards,

slava1stclass

[JimZ]

Hi Slava,

Whereas I personally believe that the current market price of Glory groups is, to some extent or other overstated, I do not deny that there is indeed a market out there where such groups are changing hands. Given the "trio" prices, I am therefore not suprised to see Glory 1s also commanding sufficiently higher (and still in my opinion inflated) prices. But as demand drives "trios" prices up, the price of seperate Glory 1's primarily, as well as documented 2nd and 3rds pertaining to trios will also increase (althogh the latter to a lesser extent).

For those who would buy the 1st class with the aim of finding the remaining components of the group, then they might still manage to complete the group at a sufficiently lower price than a complete "Trio" at the current market price! However, given the rather slim chances of this happening, I would say that the Glory 1 is indeed to be considered and valued in isolation.

When all is said and done, I agree that the underlying argument remains that indeed, there are only so many Glory 1s and even less Glory trios!! And indeed to own either (especially a trio) remains, as you very well said a feat indeed!!

Jim

[Bryan]

Apart from the Glory hype, it is a gamble in many a way! Pay more for the first class, get the research done and then hope and pray that the 2nd and 3rd class eventually turn up! The sum of the parts will probably still be less than the value of the group. Of course that's one heck of an ambitious re-unting project to take on!

It may be possible that the dealer already ordered the research for this single order and because it is not part of a Cavalier group the dealer will then disclose the fact that he made research on it. This will give the customer the opportunity to hope it might belong to a Cavalier group.

If it is part of a Cavalier group, then the dealer will not disclose the fact that he already ordered the research on it, so this single medal can bring more money for sure.

I guess I'm a pessimist to think that way.

[slava1stclass]

But as demand drives "trios" prices up, the price of seperate Glory 1's primarily, as well as documented 2nd and 3rds pertaining to trios will also increase (althogh the latter to a lesser extent).

Jim

Jim,

You raise a very, very interesting point here - one which admittedly I have never really given much thought to. I can think of only one instance over the past 16 years where I've seen a separate, documented 2nd or 3rd Class Glory attributed to a Full Cavalier offered for sale by a dealer in the West. In that instance, the premium to be paid for this provenance was high.

I would think the likelihood of finding a documented Full Cavalier 2nd and 3rd Class Glory group would be even more remote - this because the individual orders were likely pieced out back in the early '90s when their big brother i.e., the Glory 1st, left the "family."

Were a documented 2nd/3rd Class Full Cavalier group to appear today, I dare think it would command a very hefty premium as the likelihood of finding its 1st Class brother would seem greater than were the opposite the case.

Regards,

slava1stclass

[Christian Zulus]

Gentlemen,

as we can see, Igor sells his Glories .

The market makes the prices and not the expertise of phaleristics.

The fact is, that a Glory 1cl is much rarer, than a HSU. Glory 1cl is also the result of 3 heroic deeds and it had been never a "birthday-present" like many HSUs.

So, let us wait for a Glory 1cl offered (and sold) for 10k .

Best regards

Christian

[NavyFCO]

Just my two cents... I (as ususal) wonder what is "market reality"? Igor has a great clientle and he's a super, and honest, dealer. Therefore, he gets a premium for the awards he sells. Were I (or any of us non-dealers) to sell this award, how much could we realistically get for it? If I could only sell it for $6000, is that "market reality"? Or is Igor's price "market reality"? Just a question to chew on....

Dave

[Ed_Haynes]

Good points, Dave, as usual. The issue, of course, is that (intrinsic melted-down value aside) these things are worth only what someone will pay for them on any given day, no more, no less. Every dealer sells their medals eventually, the only question is how long they can afford to hold them in inventory at a price that "the market" feels is too high. If, in contravention of everything in learned in ECON 101, you can hold items for years in inventory and steadily increase the prices against the day when they sell, fair enough. And these things do, apparently, sell, eventually.

[Christian Zulus]

Dear Dave,

dear Ed,

the fact is, that more collectors buy their items at Igor - or at any other of the main dealers -, than from you, from me or from any other collector (= non-dealer).

So, the prices, were selling takes place (Igor sells!), at the main dealers websites represent the larger part of the Soviet phaleristic market.

There is another - smaller - market from collector to collector, where selling might take place without a certain "premium", because neither your, nor my business is selling orders & medels: You are a US-Navy-officer or a professor at university and I am a manager for classical music & lobbyist for Serbia.

So, we - the collectors - can exchange the items at "true values" and Igor & Co. have to add an "average rate of profit" to the values - according to the Marxist Theory.

Another crucial point is the exchange rate of USD vs. EURO. For us collectors in Europe the Soviet awards got a little bit cheaper the last year - due to the strength of the EURO. So, when the USD is depreciating, the prices for Soviet awards have to rise, due to the fact, that they are "European Stuff".

It would be more clever to link the prices of the Soviet Orders & Medals to the EURO and not to the USD

Russia is calculating in EURO und the Russians are spending their money in Europe.

Just a few thoughts ...

Best regards

Christian

[Wild Card]

Good points Christian. You reminded me of a conversation I had with a couple of other collectors at the recent SOS in Louisville.

It all revolved around the expectation of some dealers to be given a discount on the asking price of an item based solely on the fact that they are dealers!?! I should add that, to our knowledge, Igor does not fall into this category and the dealers under discussion were not all Soviet/Russian dealers. Now get this - the dealer expects a discount from the collector. What are we missing here. If anyone can explain it, I will gladly pass it on to the others.

Thank you,

Wild Card

[Bryan]

It would be more clever to link the prices of the Soviet Orders & Medals to the EURO and not to the USD

That's a bit Eurocentric.

[order_of_victory]

Another crucial point is the exchange rate of USD vs. EURO. For us collectors in Europe the Soviet awards got a little bit cheaper the last year - due to the strength of the EURO. So, when the USD is depreciating, the prices for Soviet awards have to rise, due to the fact, that they are "European Stuff".

It would be more clever to link the prices of the Soviet Orders & Medals to the EURO and not to the USD

Russia is calculating in EURO und the Russians are spending their money in Europe.

Christian

Yes that may be so but most Soviet Medal Dealers are based in the USA so it makes sense for prices to bein USD

Order of Victory

[JimZ]

On pricing currencies

Dollars or Euros..... there is a rates of exchange that will actually convert Euros to Dollars .... and vice versa!!

On spiraling prices

What beats me is that some actually rejoice in spiralling prices that is good for nobody.... except those who think of their collections as an investment!

On market realities

I recently replaced a Nevsky in my collection and only today, I've seen one in close to similar condition sell higher than what I paid. I was not happy that I bought mine "cheap" ..... I was sorry that somebody overpaid. But there you have it...... two Nevskies....same variation..... similar conditions and a few hundred dollars apart in price!!!

Similarly, I can say the same has happened with screwback ORBs - I have seen some Type 2's sell at over US$1,200. I have also seen other original ones sell at US$600 - Again...both original, both same variation and both in similar condition.

Same thing with something as simple as the 1985 OGPWs...... Some people pay $15.....others pay $45

What can I say to all that ?? Maybe each time the pricey order was sought by 2 people trying to reunite the same group? Possible but unlikely!!!

I have long since concluded ..... and will not be swayed on this point, that there is no such thing as a market reality ..... and each order, each medal commands its own individual market reality!

Jim

[NavyFCO]

I have long since concluded ..... and will not be swayed on this point, that there is no such thing as a market reality ..... and each order, each medal commands its own individual market reality!

Well said. I always do think it somehow strange that I sell awards "wholesale" to one dealer who then marks them up by 75%... while another dealer asks only 10% more than what I'm selling the same award for wholesale. So, who is the market reality? The dealer who makes the 75% mark up or the dealer who makes the 10% mark up over "wholesale"? Some people will argue that the one making the 75% mark up is market reality, because they've already posted that opinion in this thread... so when another dealer asks much less for the same award, does that mean that they are asking below market reality, or is the fact that they too are a dealer mean that there are different market realities as JimZ suggests?

For Christian: I think that if we should change the currency that Soviet awards are traded in, it should be to rubles. After all, the awards are Russian and most are being bought by Russian collectors. It would thus be only appropriate to change the currency to these award's "home" currency.

Dave

[Wild Card]

For Christian: I think that if we should change the currency that Soviet awards are traded in, it should be to rubles. After all, the awards are Russian and most are being bought by Russian collectors. It would thus be only appropriate to change the currency to these award's "home" currency.

Dave

Sorry Dave. I can?t go along with you on this one. It is a noble, but I do not think economically sound philosophy; but first let me address another matter which has some bearing on this issue.

Like it or not Gentlemen, the problem does not stem so much from within our ranks as from a new player - the investor. Since the early 90?s a good number of individuals have come into sudden enormous wealth. Until that time, these particular people had spent their lives in an environment of very insecure economic stability. Therefore, they have tended to avoid what we in the west consider to be secure traditional investments, instead putting their money (which to them has no real lasting value or security) into what we can call ?hard goods?.

I first encountered this in 1991 when it came to my attention that gold Rolex Submariners were backlogged six months because they were going east to be sold at premium prices as fast as they could be produced. It wasn?t for status so much as hard value. Real estate (in the west, of course) has become a favorite; such investments in London have created new legends. The art world has become a playground at recess; and, unfortunately our little area of interest, among others, has caught their attention. Keep in mind the fact that they are putting currency, which they consider worthless into items which hopefully can be liquidated when the need arises; so money is no object.

In the end, collectors have collections and investors have portfolios. For this reason, on several occassions in the past, I have given a price break on a piece because I know that it?s going to a ?good home? - to a collector. It may sound silly, but that?s the way it is.

Now, with regard to a pricing standard. The ruble just does not have the record of stability needed. A point which has, in great part, created the situation described above. As things are now, if the ruble was to collapse or undergo a substantial ?adjustment?, would it greatly affect the collector?s market? A bit perhaps, but not greatly. So basically, that leaves us with a choice between the $US and the Euro. Personally, although an American, I have no problem with the Euro. Having collected Imperial German for thirty years, I have bought items in German Marks that cost anywhere from $.38 to $.60 - that?s a 55%+ swing. During the past (how many, ten or so?) years, I have bought items in Euros that have seen a swing of over 30%. Also, having attended over half a dozen auctions in Germany in the past three years, I can tell you that the Euro suits the global community of collectors pretty well.

Regards,

Wild Card

[Christian Zulus]

Gentlemen,

in today's world there are only 4 states, who have their own and really free currency: USA, EU, China & Japan.

The Russian ruble is more or less linked to the EURO.

Think what might happen, if the USA might attack the Iran and the whole operation would end up in a fiasco.

The USD might loose dramatically in it's exchange value and Mr. "slava1stclass" might write a whole series of postings "Another Price Threshold is Threatened".

So, for comparing the raising prices, we have to look at the currency of the main market for these items - and this is the EUR and not the USD, I assume.

Let us take the hypothetic case: The USA produces an Iran-desaster, the USA have to face an economic recession (Greenspan-statement!) and the Russian demand for Soviet Awards is increasing, due to the growing well-off upper middle class in Russia.

So, the market prices for rare Soviet Awards in USD might double within very short time.

Just my thoughts, why to look at our market via an EUR-perspective for making statistics.

Best regards

Christian

[Frontovik Mike]

Yes the dollar could c ertainly get beat down after some hypothetical foreign policy blunder. It already has due to the big Asian sell-offs this past week. However, we might equally be concerned for the long term health of the Euro given the eventual economic impact of the near 10% unemployment facing much of the EU... a situation that is not hypothetical. I think our market bias simply are based on our geography and not the percieved power of our native currency. American and Canadian collectors will always base reference to the dollar either US or Canadian, the EU to the Euro, and Asia to the Yen primarily. It's simply a mater of comfort.

I might add that I had a nice conversation with Igor at the 2004 MAX in Charlotte. At that time he mentioned that it was changes in the Russian collector market in particular that was driving his valuations. He stated it had gotten to the point that he could seek out items sold to long time customers and buy back material he had once sold... Buying it back at a price higher that he sold it for in the first transaction and make money again on the Russian market

Mike

Edited March 5, 2007 by Frontovik Mike

[order_of_victory]

Gentlemen,

in today's world there are only 4 states, who have their own and really free currency: USA, EU, China & Japan.

Do not forget the United Kingdom, ours is free as well

Order of Victory

Edited March 5, 2007 by order_of_victory

[JimZ]

Lets all get real please! Russian collectors and dealers talk Dollars better than the rest of us - As for Russian dealers they can also go slightly out of their way to quote you prices in Euros should you really want!!! The only places you'll probably be buying orders and medals in roubles is in a flea market!

When even the new Russian wave of repatriation of ODMs is based on the dollar price, I feel comfortable saying that currency talked is dollars and is there to stay! And with the sort of russians buying back ODMs from the West. movements in exchange rates are just a small nuisance .... nothing more!

Jim

[new world]

...

I might add that I had a nice conversation with Igor at the 2004 MAX in Charlotte. At that time he mentioned that it was changes in the Russian collector market in particular that was driving his valuations. He stated it had gotten to the point that he could seek out items sold to long time customers and buy back material he had once sold... Buying it back at a price higher that he sold it for in the first transaction and make money again on the Russian market

Mike

That's what usually happens, lots of awards seen on major dealer sites find ther way back to the same dealer who originally sold the awards.

[Guest Rick Research]

"That's what usually happens, lots of awards seen on major dealer sites find ther way back to the same dealer who originally sold the awards."

That is PRECISELY because as Wild Card says, THOSE people are not and never were COLLECTORS-- they were "investor" speculators.

It might as well be Elvis Presley's toenail clippings... does not matter what the COMMODITY is, it is musical chairs COMMODITY shuffling, and God help whoever is holding the bag when the music stops.

Luckily for Mere-Mortal-Me, none of that affects me. I am soooooooooo far below that level that I can and do and will happily toodle along with what interests me and what I can get for the rest of my life-- just the way I have for the last 40 years.

I don't care what something is "worth" to somebody else-- I only know what something is "worth" to myself. Life is simpler and happier if you buy what you want and then keep it.

[Gerd Becker]

Couldn?t agree more with you and WC, Rick.

Glad to be with people, who love the HOBBY more than the Dollar

[JimZ]

Life is simpler and happier if you buy what you want and then keep it.

Or if u cannot have them all .... at least upgrade it

Jim