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Soviet awards are getting cheaper in USD !


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Gentlemen,

maybe due to the fact, that the collectors from Russia might calculate in EUR and not in USD, some items and groups at Igor's website http://www.collectrussia.com/ got really cheaper in USD :jumping: .

The EUR lost a lot of exchange-value against the USD the last months:

Gentlemen, what do you think about the reason, why Soviet awards are getting cheaper in USD :unsure: ?

Best regards :beer:

Christian

Edited by Christian Zulus
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One should say that *advertised* prices are lower; as in many markets, who pays retail?

Anyway, prices went up, and lots of people said "I want a piece of that!" and decided to sell. Seeing multiple 'text book examples' for sale should give a hint that someone in the know thinks they see the apex, the top of a bubble. When that happens supply exceeds demand and prices fall.

Oh, and the fact that world wide there's a flight to safety with regards to investments may be affecting prices. Collectables are notoriously fickle investments.

Prices go up. Prices go down. Always have, always will.

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Gentlemen,

Although this subject was touched upon in another thread (?Eye Candy?) where I provided some observations, I would like to offer some further opinions.

1. With regard to currency, we seem to be talking out of both sides of our mouth. What is the standard, US$ or Euros? It was put forward (with emphasis) in ?Eye Candy? that ?It seems, that the basic currency in our market is the EURO and not the USD?, which is fine by me. I would only add to that that reports I have gotten from Russia are that ?People are running around buying up US$?... not Euros. At any rate, I think that in order to make this discussion meaningful, we should stay with one currency and Euros are fine by me.

2. In the other thread, I suggested that we might be looking at a bubble with regard to Soviet collectibles. To that, it was suggested that ?...that there is (nothing) like a "bubble" in our market - just the ordinary supply & demand mechanism. BTW: There is also no "bubble" in the market for ultra-luxurious housing (flats, estates etc.), where the prices are still at ultra-high level.? Although the ?B? word has already been put forth in this thread, I will concede that it might not be the most accurate term. Perhaps ?over inflated? says it better, perhaps not. I think that in our case there is a pent up demand among many collectors that will come into play if prices drop to certain levels. This would represent something of a ?safety net? which would prevent a significant collapse of the market (burst bubble?) - we may see.

3. Eric B makes a very good point when he says ?the fact that world wide there's a flight to safety with regards to investments may be affecting prices. Collectables are notoriously fickle investments. Prices go up. Prices go down. Always have, always will.? The key here is to differentiate between the degrees of liquidity in investments. Medals (Soviet collectables), coins, works of art, et al. represent a high degree of liquidity while others, most notably, real estate, as so many have found, do not.

During the next few weeks, at least two auctions will be offering more Soviet material than I have seen on the market in years. While we have the arguable state of the Russian collectors who have been the driving force in the market during the past few years, as mentioned before, I believe that there is also a pent up demand among us lesser mere mortals which, if prices begin to drop, will at some point, come into play. Whatever happens, it should give us a clearer picture of the current situation; and that should be most interesting.

Regards,

Wild Card

Edited by Wild Card
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Hello Wild Card,

I've found your opinion highly interesting.

As a collector, I am sure I've better invested my money, buying orders and decorations in the past 30 years than other friends/colleagues of mine, who bought stocks.

As an auctioneer, I understand that the collectors' market is strange, and sometimes with a downwards trend but, especially with high-end pieces, the value never fell down and hopefully, it never will.

Our "Red Auction" will take place in a very difficult international moment (economically). We couldn't forecast this current financial crysis: to organize our sale, took our time from January 2008 (when Dr. Spada decided to give us his Socialist collection), until the end of May (when the collection, after the valuation and inventory, was transferred to our offices), ending with late August, when I was ready after having catalogued the whole; the rest of the work was in the graphic dept. and the typography.

Let's see what will happen: we see high interest from both the Eastern and the Western Countries. This doesn't imply that all those interested persons would spend their money, though.

I don't think that prices would collapse (do you remember the price of Soviet Orders, back in the early '70s?): I think that in the late '80s-'90s they were under, underestimated.

I'm not pessimistic, but I know that the situation is not the best.

At the last auction in Basel (one week ago), I've seen Russian collectors and dealers spend a lot of money, not only in the Russian pieces, but widening (and eventually increasing the average price) their interest towards other European countries, such as Imperial Austria, the islamic states, etc.

sincerely,

Enzo Calabresi (Auction House San Giorgio, Orders & Decorations Dept.)

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Full cavalier set of Labour Glory http://www.collectrussia.com/DISPITEM.HTM?ITEM=19568 had been USD 26.000,- and is offered now for USD 22.000,- ..... almost a bargain :rolleyes:

It's interesting, Igor didn't reduce the asked prices for all sorts of (military) Glory :unsure: .

Best regards :beer:

Christian

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Seeing multiple 'text book examples' for sale should give a hint that someone in the know thinks they see the apex, the top of a bubble.

I noticed that for more than 2 years - the "Red-Bible" is almost sold out :P .

The fact is, that some friends of us, well known ex-owners of outstanding Soviet collections, already sold all (or nearly all) of their Soviet stuff to Russian collectors.

Best regards :beer:

Christian

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I guess, you typed wrong and you wanted to type: Igor will DEcrease its prices .....

Otherwise your message will have now logic ... :rolleyes:

Best regards :beer:

Christian

explain me why please? since USD is weaker than euro, he has a shortfall to compensate...

this topic is a curious thing. Maybe can we expect a correction on common orders and medals (red stars, CSM, etc) but do you really expect prices to significantly fall? Altough this Glory set went from 26000 to 22000, it's still worth 22K :speechless1:

Edited by seb16trs
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Dear Wild Card,

dear Enzo,

highly interesting and valid remarks to the current situation :cheers: .

The fact is, that the prices for Soviet items in Euros didn't change at all during the last weeks or months at auctions or in retail business.

The other fact is, that the Euro got rather weak against the Dollar and so the price tags in USD got rather friendly for the US-collector.

From the main dealers in Vienna, I got the recent information, that there had been almost no change in the buying behaviour of the Russian collectors concerning Soviet items at the last auctions here in Europe.

Concerning liquidity: It's easier to buy some Soviet items for some 10k bucks (and to sell them), than to buy a top-class flat in the city of Vienna or a luxurious country estate in the Austrian Alps (Kitzb?hel etc.), where you have to invest millions of Euros.

An important question remains: Who are the typical collectors in Russia of Soviet items :unsure: ? I guess, it's the well off middle class and not the well known oligarchs :rolleyes: . There is a growing middle class in Russia, who earns much more money, than in the EU or in the USA working in the same jobs.

Another fact is, that the financial crisis seems now to be stabilized some how by the governments of the western countries. If they really can tackle the problems, than liquidity will return to the markets for investments, I guess. Consider: The interest rates for loans are now at a very low level :D .

There might be a decrease in the hammer prices for ultra-rare and ultra-high-priced items in the moment, but I don't think, there will be a sharp decline in the prices for nice "middle-class" items (i.e. HSU, Glory 1cl, Nevsky, Lenin etc.) - calculating in Euros. Just my theory in the moment ...

Best regards :beer:

Christian

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explain me why please? since USD is weaker than euro, he has a shortfall to compensate...

No, please have a look at the graph at my first posting at this thread:

The Euro lost a got deal of it's value against the Dollar - that's a fact.

And you have to consider the constantly growing demand for Soviet items by Russian collectors over the last years.

So, there is no point for a "compensation" you might expect, I guess.

It's a long time ago, when the Dollar had been stronger than the Euro ... :rolleyes:

Best regards :beer:

Christian

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No, please have a look at the graph at my first posting at this thread:

The Euro lost a got deal of it's value against the Dollar - that's a fact.

And you have to consider the constantly growing demand for Soviet items by Russian collectors over the last years.

So, there is no point for a "compensation" you might expect, I guess.

It's a long time ago, when the Dollar had been stronger than the Euro ... :rolleyes:

Best regards :beer:

Christian

there's still a 20% shortfall against USD. We can suppose the US market is dry, so the effect of russian demand will depend on wether they pay in USD or euro...

But Igor increased dramatically its prices. I can concede to you maybe Igor will not raise its prices, or just a bit.

And you have to consider the constantly growing demand for Soviet items by Russian collectors over the last years.

so if demand is still increasing just explain to me why should we expect prices to lower? :D

So, there is no point for a "compensation" you might expect, I guess.

It's a long time ago, when the Dollar had been stronger than the Euro ... :rolleyes:

?? do we practice the same economics?

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Gentlemen,

I am pleased to see what I sense as a willingness to speak in terms of Euros. A point which I had not mentioned before is that while we have been talking in Euros and US$, there are many members who?s native currency is, to name only a few, British ?, Swiss Francs, Russian Rubles, all of which have, and will, fluctuate differently against the Euro and the US$. So by staying with one standard, we can all calculate the numbers according to our individual needs.

Beyond that, I would like to caution against confusing equality with parity. One Euro equaling one US$ is not necessarily as accurate as a ratio which reflects the relative value in terms of such things as purchasing power which is usually more accurately reflected in the international exchange rates as illustrated in post #1.

Regards,

Wild Card

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